A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
